Chowrangi

As Election Commission of Pakistan has announced October 6th for Presidential Elections, and General Pervez Musharraf has showed his consent in shedding the uniform right after the elections, rumors are strife about who is going to succeed him as next Chief Of Army Staff (COAS).

The Glass House shared a report by Amir Mir (former editor of Weekly Independent, currently affiliated with Gulf News and the Spanish News Agency EFE as its Pakistan incharge) about prospective reorganization of command and control structure of the Pakistan Army by General Musharraf in order to decentralize the power nexus. In the proposed setup three regional commands, North, South and Central, headed by three lieutenant generals, will be established and existing nine corps will fall under these new command centers, with each command having three corps under it.

While the Central Command of the army will be headquartered in Rawalpindi, the Southern Command will have its headquarters in Quetta and the Northern Command is most likely to be based either in Gujranwala or Mangla.

Prior to making a decision for future COAS, Musharraf has to appoint two new four-star generals to fill the positions of Vice Chief of Army Staff (VCOAS) and Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee (CJCSC), currently occupied by General Ahsan Salim Hayat and General Ehsanul Haq respectively. VCOAS is more critical of the two posts as the new VCOAS will automatically become COAS the moment Musharrf sheds his uniform.

The 12 Corps Commanders, currently heading vital divisions of the army, were all hand-picked by General Musharraf and some were even part of the military coup staged by him. They include (in the order of seniority):

• Lieutenant General Khalid Ahmed Kidwai (Director General Strategic Plans Division),
• Lieutenant General Ashfaq Pervez Kiani (Director General Inter-Services Intelligence),
• Lieutenant General Malik Arif Hayat (Serving in the GHQ),
• Lieutenant General Tariq Majeed (Corps Commander, Rawalpindi),
• Lieutenant General Mohammed Safdar (Chief of Logistical Service),
• Lieutenant General Ather Ali (Director General at the Joint Staff Headquarters),
• Lieutenant General Wasim Ahmad Ashraf (Corps Commander, Gujranwala),
• Lieutenant General Mohammed Sabir (Military Secretary, GHQ),
• Lieutenant General Imtiaz Hussain (Adjutant General, GHQ),
• Lieutenant General Muhammad Afzal Muzzaffar (Quarter Master General, GHQ),
• Lieutenant General Hamid Rab Nawaz (Inspector General Training and Evaluation, GHQ)
• Lieutenant General Muhammad Salahuddin Satti (Chief of General Staff, GHQ)

Out of the 12 corps commanders, Amir Mir lists his suspects as:

• Lieutenant General Khalid Ahmed Kidwai: Although the Director-General of the Strategic Plans Division tops the seniority list, he is already on extension and is not likely to be considered for the post of the VCOAS. However, due to his deep involvement with the military’s strategic nuclear assets, he may become the CJCSC.
• Lieutenant General Ashfaq Pervez Kiani: Director General of the all-powerful Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) is more likely to become the new VCOAS and prospective successor of Musharraf due to number of reasons. He is close confidant of Musharraf and is the first DG ISI in history of Pakistan to openly interact in a political situation, while negotiating the power sharing deal with Benazir Bhutto for his boss. He was the deputy military secretary of Benazir Bhutto during her first premiership tenure.
• Lieutenant General Tariq Majeed: Commander of most influential 10 corps, General Majeed is next line of General Kiani.
• Lieutenant General Salahuddin Satti: Incase General Musharraf going to repeat the mistake made by Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, Zia-ul-Haq and Nawaz Sharif to prefer “loyalty” on seniority, General Satti, the Chief of General Staff, who ranks number 12 on the seniority list may be selected as the VCOAS.

General Majeed and General Kiani both are known as hardcore Musharraf loyalists, as well as hard-line professional soldiers. They are from the Baloch Regiment and had earlier headed the Military Intelligence (MI) in different times, one after the other.

Saleh Zaafir of the News provide some of the missing pieces of the puzzle:

• Major General Nasir Janjua: appointed as DGMO, is another likely candidate. The slot of the DGMO is considered to be the most important assignment from the point of view of operations as three out of seven former DGMOs became the army chiefs including General Pervez Musharraf, General Jehangir Karamat, and late General Asif Nawaz Janjua.
• Lt. General Azhar Ahsan Hayat: the Corps Commander Karachi will get a fresh appointment in Rawalpindi/Islamabad.
• Major General Nadeem Taj: Director General Military Academy, Kakul, is being promoted to the rank of Lt. General and being assigned to an important and sensitive slot. He had been Director General Military Intelligence (DGMI) and also served as General Pervez Musharraf’s Military Secretary (MS). General Nadim Taj was with General Musharraf in the plane on October 12, 1999 as his MS during the journey from Colombo to back home.
• Lt General Shafaatullah Shah: Corps Commander Lahore, who succeeded General Nadim Taj as MS to the President, is among the front-runners for three important posts supposed to fall vacant early next month.

DG ISI Lt General Ashfaq Pervez Kiani, Commander 10 Corps Lt. General Tariq Majeed and CGS GHQ Lt General Salahuddin Satti are being considered for elevation to the rank of the four-star Generals.

Update: The News reports that six Major Generals are promoted to the rank of Lieutenant General. Amongst them Major General Mohsin Kamal has been posted as Corp Commander Rawalpindi (replacing Lt. General Tariq Majeed) and Major General Nadeem Taj made DG ISI (replacing Lt. General Ashfaq Pervez Kiani). This mean that General Majeed and General Kiani are main contestants for the hot seat. I think General Kiani will become COAS while General Majeed will be the VCOAS. That is, one Pervez will replace another Pervez.

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• Open Letter of Appreciation to Government of Pakistan - November 5th, 2008
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• Pity the Nation - October 26th, 2008
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