Chowrangi

ISIS (Institute For Science And International Security) is “a non-profit, non-partisan institution dedicated to informing the public about science and policy issues affecting international security”. ISIS’s projects integrate technical, scientific, and policy research in order to build a sound foundation for a wide variety of efforts to reduce the threat posed by nuclear weapons to U.S. [Sourcewatch]

On May 19, ISIS published two reports stating that Pakistan is expanding its nuclear arsenal building capabilities at sites near Dera Ghazi Khan and Rawalpindi. [reports are available at here and here]

Before going into the details of these reports, it should be noted that the “commercial” satellite imagery, (from DigitalGlobe) referred by ISIS to make its point, is dated, ranging from 2002 to 2008, latest being August 2008. I wonder why ISIS took so long to come up with its theory of expansion in nuclear arsenal.

For the site near Dera Ghazi Khan, ISIS has compared image taken on August 25, 2008 with an earlier image taken on October 11, 2004. According to them, the latest pictures show expansion of industrial facilities at the site. The expansion includes new industrial buildings, new anti-aircraft installations, and several new settling ponds among the three compounds identified in commercial satellite imagery.

The reasons for this expansion are undoubtedly related to Pakistani decisions to upgrade its nuclear arsenal, currently estimated to contain roughly between 60 and 100 nuclear weapons deliverable by attack aircraft and ballistic missiles. In particular, Pakistan may build smaller, lighter plutonium-fission weapons and deliverable thermonuclear weapons that use plutonium as the nuclear trigger and enriched and natural enriched uranium in the secondary blast.

ISIS report also highlights the threats to Dera Ghazi Khan nuclear site. There has been at least one ground attack by more than a dozen gunmen, and nearby railway tracks have also been bombed. On February 5, 2009, a suicide bomber killed more than 30 people in Dera Ghazi Khan. This was a sectarian attack targeting a funeral procession outside a Shia mosque.

About the nuclear facility near Rawalpindi, ISIS report says:

“Pakistan appears to have expanded its plutonium separation capability at the New Labs section of the Pakistan Institute of Science and Technology (PINSTECH) near Rawalpindi. A series of commercial satellite images from February 2002 through September 2006 show the construction of what appears to be a second plutonium separation plant adjacent to the original one, suggesting that Pakistan is increasing its plutonium separation capacity in anticipation of an increased supply of spent fuel from new heavy water reactors. The plutonium separated from the spent fuel is usable in nuclear weapons.”

In the end, ISIS recommends US government to “convince” Pakistan to halt its production of fissile material and join the negotiations of a universal, verified, Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty (FMCT), which would ban the production of plutonium and highly enriched uranium for nuclear explosives.

While government of Pakistan has refuted these reports, is it silently slashing down the nuclear budget to pull a virtual ban on nuclear expansion, Ansar Abbasi reports (also mentioned in ISIS report):

The government is keeping mysterious silence on the issue of massive slashing of the budget for the country’s nuclear programme, a move considered by some insiders as an unannounced rollback.

According to one source, the Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee General Tariq Majeed has tried his level best to secure the required finances for the nuclear programme and also to avoid the introduction of new financial system for these institutions, but to no avail.

The ISIS reports will fuel ongoing media campaign against Pakistan’s nuclear assets, supporting the hypothetical danger of falling them in Taliban/extremists hands, initiating a chain of dirty bombs, suitcase bombs, and backpack bombs.

Other posts by Kashif Aziz

• Taliban of Punjab Police - March 3rd, 2010
• Chile Earthquake, Hawaii Tsunami and Social Media - February 28th, 2010
• President Zardari apologized for childbirth in rickshaw - February 26th, 2010
• Reason of Traffic Jams in Karachi - February 19th, 2010
• Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, Top Most Taliban Leader Caught in Karachi - February 16th, 2010
• PTCL Launches Largest Data Center of Pakistan - February 15th, 2010
• Reflections On Twin Blasts in Karachi - February 6th, 2010
• Aafia Siddiqui convicted, may be sentenced for 60 years - February 4th, 2010
• Dawn News going down the Drain? - January 30th, 2010
• Has Karachi Gone To Dogs? - January 27th, 2010