Chowrangi

World public opinion is becoming more and more sensitized against nuclear weapons and the five nuclear powers are facing increasing pressures at home and from the international community to drastically cut down and eliminate nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction. The nuclear weapons states are now beginning to recognize the futility of maintaining their huge nuclear arsenals, which were the pride of the cold war years as symbols of power and prestige. These are now regarded as a liability to be gotten rid off.

This realization has, however, not dawned on South Asia where a nuclear race, reminiscent of the cold war era, appears to be in the making. Some leaders in India and Pakistan still regard nuclear weapons as the hard currency of power and as a means of domination or deterrence. Given the history of conflict and deep-seated mistrust between the two countries, the strongly held views regarding the absolute power of these weapons as final arbiters, and the emotional proclivities of their leader, the potential nuclearization of these two neighboring states could pose a real threat to the security and survival of one-fifth of the human race inhabiting South Asia. To understand how the two countries have reached this situation one has to first understand how the nuclear programme evolved in the two countries and the perceptions which have propelled these programmes over the last thirty or more years.

NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGY IN SOUTH ASIA

The history of development in South Asia goes back to 1948 when India established its Atomic Energy Commission under Dr. Bhabha reporting directly to the Indian Prime Minister, Mr. Nehru. The Cambridge educated Dr. Bhabha had wide contacts in the closely-knit small post-war nuclear community. He was a nationalist who wanted to put India on the world nuclear map to match the West. Towards this end, he laid the foundations of a broad-based nuclear programme making full use of his close relations with key nuclear experts and laboratories in the UK, France, Canada, and Italy. Looking back, it is now clear that right from the beginning, the intent and direction of this programme was towards the acquisition of nuclear capability India made full use of the ready availability of nuclear technology in the 1950s and 1960s when there were no international safeguard systems to control the flow of nuclear material and technology the superpowers were busy in developing their nuclear arsenals, and believed that the technical difficulties and financial costs of developing nuclear weapons, together with the secrecy which surrounded their programmes, would constitute insurmountable barriers against proliferation. In 956, India became the first Asian country to have a research reactor using US supplied enriched uranium. In 1960, India was able to get a 40 MW plutonium production reactor called Canada-India Reactor (CIR), without safeguards. It was supplied under the Colombo Plan by Canada and was originally meant to be a regional facility. In 1964, India completed a reprocessing plant with the assistance of British and American suppliers. With CIR and the reprocessing plant in place India could extract 13kg of weapons grade plutonium equivalent to two or three bombs per year by the mid 1960s, while this was continuing, India made no secret of its nuclear objective and repeatedly announced that it could make nuclear weapons within a short time but would not do so. As early as 1957, soon after India had made it first research reactor, the Indian Prime Minister, while in a meeting with General Nichols of Manhattan Project, surprisingly asked Fr. Bhabha if he could build an atomic bomb. When Dr. Bhabha answered he could do it in a short time, Nehru advised him not to do so until told. This reveals an interesting insight into the Indian nuclear thinking right from the beginning.. it is clear that India’s pursuit of nuclear capability and acquisition of essential facilities preceded China’s nuclear explosion of 1964. but after this explosion, India stepped up its programme and started stockpiling weapons grade plutonium and other materials and equipment.

The development and direction of India’s programme started worrying Pakistan in the early 1960s. Pakistan could not ignore India’s massive drive down the nuclear road and open claims that India could go nuclear in a year or two. Pakistan started ringing warning bells in many friendly capitals but Canada, United States, or other Western states did not share its concerns. In 1964, during his visit to Pakistan, Dr. Glenn Seaboarg, Chairman of the US Atomic Energy Commissions, was apprised of the growing nuclear potential of India but he assured Pakistan that India could not go nuclear and Pakistan’s fears were not well founded. But hits did not allay the apprehension of Pakistan.

After the mid 1960s, the two Superpowers started negotiating the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Pakistan was concerned about a nuclear threat not only from the acknowledged nuclear states but also from the potential and undeclared nuclear states (NNWS) against nuclear attack, threat, or blackmail. The nuclear weapons states refused to offer any credible security guarantees to the non-nuclear states, which further disappointed Pakistan.

India’s nuclear programme progressed further with the supply of two power reactors from the USA and two more from Canada. Meanwhile, India continued to stockpile plutonium from its un-safeguarded CIR and reprocessing facilities. In 1971, during the fourth Geneva Conference on the Peaceful Uses of Atomic Energy held in Geneva, India announced its intention to conduct a peaceful nuclear explosion. The major powers took no notice of it, but Pakistan was alarmed and protested to Canada. The Canadian Prime Minister went to India to urge the Indian Prime Minister to respect the undertakings given to Canada that CIR facility would not be used for making a nuclear explosive device. The Indian Prime Minister refused to give any such assurances.

By Mehar Nawaz

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